mercredi 20 septembre 2017

Defence wargaming handbook [excerpt]

Defence wargaming handbook is a very good and open-access introduction to what is a wargame and how to design it for training and learning purposes. Wargames were at the origins of the first role-playing game (D&D).

About the determining the outcomes of players decisions (free, rigid, semi-rigid or minimal/consensual adjudications), role-playing is cited as a tool and a technique that can be used to support adjudication (p.44) :
« Role play. Defence wargames sometimes include an element of role play, but are rarely role-play-only. Role play can exert a strong influence towards free, or even consensual/minimal, adjudication. Constraining role-play actor interactions can reduce the influence, but that risks lessening the benefits of role play (free thinking creativity). The ultimate expression of role play is completely open-ended games featuring consensual adjudication. There is some evidence,[footnote] when considering human conflict situations, that role play is a better predictor of outcomes than either a single ‘expert’, or game theory, or simulated interaction and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts. »
[footnote = Green, K. C. (2005). Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 21(3), 463–472. You can download an earlier open-acces version here on SSRN]

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